Astana — A sweeping ban on e-cigarettes in Kazakhstan has pushed vaping deep underground rather than stamping it out, with Telegram and online marketplaces now acting as the country’s primary retail channels. That’s the key takeaway from a press briefing by experts at the Strategy public foundation, who presented fresh data from a 2023–2025 study on consumer attitudes toward e-cigarette regulations.
According to the foundation, the ban—enacted in June 2024 and prohibiting the import and sale of e-cigarettes—has failed to quell demand. Instead, it has reshaped supply chains and elevated risk premiums.
- Enforcement and scale: Authorities confiscated over 200,000 devices in the second half of 2024 and more than 440,000 in the first half of 2025. Independent estimates suggest the illegal market expanded by 120% over the period.
- Market composition shift: Electronic nicotine products’ share of the weekly tobacco market climbed from 0.8% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025—evidence that demand persisted and migrated to gray channels.
- Consumer behavior post-ban: 52% of users maintained their vaping frequency, 28% shifted to heated tobacco devices, 10% reverted to combustible cigarettes, and only 5% quit. Strategy notes smoke-free devices skew toward higher-income consumers, while illicit vapes now command higher prices due to legal and logistical risks.
“The vape ban has shown that strict measures do not solve the problem but drive it underground,” Strategy’s experts said, highlighting Telegram and online marketplaces as enforcement blind spots. “Sales have moved where control is impossible.”
The study also captures a sentiment shift: public appetite for pragmatic risk reduction. “When nine out of ten adults say they want the truth and to choose the lesser evil, it’s a signal, not just statistics,” said Azat Mukhamediev, project coordinator at Strategy. “The state should listen and set rules that work instead of simply prohibiting.”
Why it matters
- Policy feedback loop: Kazakhstan’s experience mirrors a familiar pattern globally—prohibitions that spur illicit channels, complicate oversight, and fragment the market.
- Health trajectory risk: With 10% of respondents returning to smoking and only 5% quitting post-ban, blunt bans may unintentionally nudge users toward more harmful products.
- Equity and access: The pivot to heated tobacco and premium smoke-free devices among wealthier users underscores a growing divide; lower-income consumers face higher prices and risk in the illicit vape market.
What to watch
- Regulatory recalibration: Whether policymakers shift from prohibition to regulated access—licensing, age-gating, product standards, and digital platform accountability.
- Platform enforcement: Telegram’s role as a de facto marketplace and whether cooperation or pressure from authorities changes discoverability and supply chains.
- Cross-border dynamics: Smuggling corridors and import patterns as regional supply adapts to Kazakhstan’s enforcement landscape.
Bottom line
Kazakhstan’s ban hasn’t eliminated vaping; it has rerouted it—at scale—into channels that are harder to monitor and arguably more hazardous for consumers. The data presented by Strategy points to a classic enforcement paradox: demand remains resilient, while the state loses visibility and leverage. For policymakers, the choice may now be between a black market that grows in the dark—or a regulated framework that brings it back into the light.
